MB S Cont
Momentum-continuation short · All regimes · Demo
MB S Cont shorts the most structurally beaten-down tokens in the universe - names ranked in the bottom 20% by cross-sectional momentum (XS < 20) - but only when they are still actively falling. Two confirmation gates ensure we are riding continuation, not catching a bounce: the 1-hour rank must be worse than the 4-hour rank, and the XS score must be lower than it was one hour ago.
This is a different thesis from MB S, which fades recent winners (mean-reversion). S Cont fades recent losers that keep losing (momentum continuation). The two strategies are complementary: S Cont fires in bear regimes and risk-off conditions; MB S fires when hot tokens cool.
Entry Logic
Every 4 hours the rebalance loop pulls the full 150-symbol universe from the MB API and filters it through four sequential gates. A token must pass all four to be entered.
Exit Mechanisms
Four independent exits fire in order of aggression. The first one to trigger wins.
| Mechanism | Trigger | Purpose |
|---|---|---|
| Stop-loss | −16% vs entry | Hard floor - protects against sudden short squeezes |
| Max hold | 4 hours after entry | Prevents positions drifting into new market regimes overnight |
| TS recovery exit | TS score rises above 35 | Closes when own-history momentum reverses - the trend is over |
| Book trail | Profit ≥ 2.5%; then 1% pullback | Locks in gains on fast continuation moves |
The TS recovery exit is the most intellectually interesting: it uses the same TS score that filters entry (must be ≤ 30) to signal exit (≥ 35). The 5-point gap prevents thrashing on noise. When TS crosses 35 the downtrend has structurally reversed and holding the short becomes a directional bet against fresh momentum.
Regime & Risk Parameters
MB S Cont launched July 2026 and is in active data collection. All five regime slots are open. Once 2–3 weeks of data are available, regime restrictions will be added based on observed performance by regime. Current results should be treated as exploratory, not representative of the final configuration.
How It Differs From MB S
| Dimension | MB S | MB S Cont |
|---|---|---|
| Thesis | Mean reversion - fade recent winners | Momentum continuation - ride losers lower |
| XS entry zone | XS 80–90 (top performers) | XS < 20 (bottom performers) |
| Confirmation | 3-factor combined score ≥ 52 | Rank declining 1h vs 4h + negative 1h XS delta |
| Stop loss | 16% (validated June 2026) | 16% |
| Exit signal | Score decay / max hold | TS recovery > 35 / max hold 4h |
| Best regime | Cautious / neutral (under review) | All regimes (data-gathering) |
Timing & Execution
- Rebalance fires every 4 hours. At each cycle the full 150-symbol universe is rescored.
- Up to 5 positions open simultaneously. New entries fill from the highest combined-score candidates that pass all four gates.
- Positions already held are checked for TS recovery exit and max-hold expiry before new entries are considered.
- Book trail arms at +2.5% profit and trails with a 1% pullback - captured automatically without waiting for the next rebalance cycle.
- The 1h XS delta gate passes through when the 1h lookback data is absent (first ~55 minutes after service start), ensuring the bot opens positions immediately on launch.